IMPROMED

Objective
Advance our ability to predict the long-term impacts of drought on Mediterranean forests and the associated effects on carbon sequestration rates, dominant species replacement, forest fire risk, and habitat provision for biodiversity.

Introduction
The increase in extreme events, such as droughts, is expected to have a profound impact on the future dynamics of Mediterranean forest ecosystems, through effects on key physiological and demographic processes. Notably, these forest changes will have cascading effects on forest fire risk, forest biodiversity, and carbon sequestration rates. Process-based dynamic vegetation models are useful tools to predict forest futures in response to extreme events, as they enable the translation of climate projections into changes in forest structure and composition. However, the development of these models has been biased toward temperate conditions, and they still suffer from major limitations in their ability to predict long-term changes in forest composition and structure driven by drought impacts.

Actions
Based on an existing process-based modeling framework of forest functioning and dynamics, IMPROMED includes tasks to improve the models’ ability to predict drought impacts on mortality and regeneration. Additionally, new models of deadwood dynamics and accumulation will be developed and coupled to the existing framework. The modeling exercises will be supported by large-scale existing datasets and field data collected during the project in areas affected by drought-induced forest decline, following the DEBOSCAT monitoring program. Finally, the project aims to predict future changes in forest composition and structure in peninsular Spain, by assessing the effects of climate change on carbon sequestration, forest fire risk, and habitat provision for biodiversity.


Project PID2023-152644NB-I00 funded by MICIU/AEI /10.13039/501100011033 and by FEDER, EU